We’ve seen a proliferation of Do-It-Yourself (DIY) investors since the COVID lockdown days. Technological advancements coupled with working from home (or maybe not so much “working”) left people with a lot of time on their hands and extra cash in the bank from government bailouts.
The initial stock market reaction to the COVID lockdown was bad. It became a fantastic opportunity for DIY investors to start trading. It truly felt like shooting fish in a barrel. You could pick just about any stock and see big gains.
Things aren’t as easy as they used to be in the good old days. Now, it takes more effort to find the best companies to invest in. At the same time, people are way more busy now than they used to be, working in the office again, as well as family obligations and other time-consuming activities. They don’t have time to do all the analysis. That’s where Blue Barrel Stock comes in.
There is eternal debate between active and passive investing. We are not here to debate. We feel the evidence has been in our favor that active investing done right works, and our clients agree. However, we recognize that there are times when a passive strategy can and will outperform an active strategy. That’s where the CORE comes in.
Investors who put all their money in an index mutual fund or ETF and call it “passive investing” are actually in a fund that is actively managed to some extent. Every individual or organization has selection criteria and will modify the holdings and weightings throughout the year. We recognize the benefits of having a CORE position that some may classify as passive, but we still consider actively managed.
CORE = 20 large or mega cap stocks, i.e. “too big to fail”
We saw the government shut down small and mid-size companies during the COVID lockdowns, but allowed big companies to remain open and earn profits. Markets still haven’t fully recovered from this phenomenon. Since we can’t trust this to never happen again, we focus our CORE on 20 large cap/mega cap companies that have survived multiple recessions and the COVID lockdowns.
Other selection criteria
Revenue-weighted sector allocation – which sectors haul in the most money, and to which companies within those sectors? What are these companies doing with that money? The companies pulling in the most money and generating the best returns for shareholders are the companies we prioritize.
Equal weighted position allocation – we tend to lean against market cap weighted allocations, like the S&P 500. There is plentiful academic research detailing pros and cons to equal weighting vs market cap weighting, and there may be days when the CORE will underperform the S&P 500, but our experience with equal weighting and annual rebalancing has been positive over the long term on a risk-adjusted basis.
Long-term holding period – The CORE is not intended to be turned over frequently. These holdings are reviewed, rebalanced or reconstituted annually.
This is the fun stuff. The EXPLORE holdings are intended to be held for a shorter period of time. Max of 2 years, but often less. Our intention is to get invested in positions before they catch fire and ride them until they reach their full potential, allowing us to book profits. Sometimes these positions don’t see the anticipated demand, and are sold for small gains or losses. There’s no silver bullet when it comes to investing. No crystal ball. But our winners are bigger than our losers.
Selection Criteria
Total Stock Market – we start with the S&P 1500 total market index, which comprises the large cap S&P 500, mid cap S&P 400 and small cap S&P 600. If you want to learn more about the methodology Standard & Poor uses to actively manage which companies to include or exclude in these indices, you can find this information here.
Screen for Volatility – historical analysis suggests low volatility stocks produce higher risk-adjusted returns.
Screen for Quality – we look for companies that have strong financial statements.
Screen for Liquidity – we want to be sure we can get in and out of the position without moving the market or seeing significant price swings between the listed price and what we end up buying/selling for
Screen for Professional Analyst Ratings – it isn’t a perfect correlation, but stocks tend to move in sync with professional analyst ratings. A new buy rating can lead to significant positive returns. A new sell rating, or simply downgrading from buy to hold, can lead to significant negative returns.
Scoring – we use a proprietary scoring system incorporating all of our screening criteria to generate a score for each stock. Those that receive a score of 90% or better fall on our BUY list. Those that are 80% or better fall on our WATCH list. When a stock from our BUY list fails to meet minimum scoring requirements, or falls below 70% on our scoring system, we place a 5% trailing sell stop on the position and let the market take us out. We recognize that some positions can have low scores and still see positive appreciation in the market, and we want to be sure we capture as much gain as possible before we exit the position.
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Subscribing to Blue Barrel Stock’s Newsletter equips individuals with the tools and insights needed to make informed investment choices, paving the way for sustained financial growth and security. Over time, this wise decision can translate into significant wealth accumulation, benefiting not just the individual investor but also providing a financial legacy for their family.
Our promise to you is hard work and creative thinking in identifying the best opportunities to get you the growth you deserve.
Austin Duke
CFA Blue Barrel Stock